The Daily Gold - Latest Comments

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

goldragon — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:51:19 -0000

Bear market rally faded. This morning the bulls were so enthusiastically buying GDX for a big rally. However, these day-highs were used by bears to short. Now we got a very bearish candlestick. It looks like we still have long way to go down. Since we have two systems in breakpointtrades.com: BPGDM and Renko, as long as both have not triggered a buy signal for GDX, I think we’d better not to buy! The goodness of these systems have been proved. Following them is better to try other system and they can let you avoid emotion like today's.
Fundamentally, I think we are in a deflation environment, all commodities are in a big correction as shown by our CRB index, it is very difficult to see precious metal and gold stocks rally alone.
There are usually three conditions for precious metal stocks to rally:
1.                  Copper and other commodities rally
2.                  Gold and silver start to rally
3.                  Fed stimulating comes.
Currently we do not have any of three. Therefore we have a long way to go down, not go up.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Sparrows345 — Wed, 16 May 2012 00:09:13 -0000

Central banks won't be purchasing precious metals, in fact in Europe, they will be pressured to sell to finance their ongoing train wreck.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

goldragon — Tue, 15 May 2012 21:58:10 -0000

Ned Smidts has an interview with Jim Puplava talking the summer doldrums.
http://www.financialsense.com/...
If we can not get a reverse before the summer like Ned is talking about, then we will go to HUI 150, or GDX 15, or even lower if gold miners sell off continue like today.
Thus I prefer to this author's opinion, i.e. we are very near the bottom, otherwise, HUI and GDX or GDXJ are going to zero very soon.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

goldragon — Tue, 15 May 2012 16:05:42 -0000

Today GDX down 4%, GDXJ 8%, they are pretty near capitulation, the weak hands throw the baby with the bathwater.
Hopefully, this makes a bottom. Like the author expected.
However, miners have a lot of problems and the investors are not confident in investing their money! And also the market environment is not for a rally of miners. We are facing deflation cycle. Commodity is in a down turn. This is conflict with the so-called bottom theory.
I am only a small guy. This is a very complex problem I could not explain.
Anyway, before the trend changes, I will not long GDX or GDXJ.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

goldragon — Tue, 15 May 2012 07:59:27 -0000

Here is what I want to talk about the bottom theory:
If you want to invest you need to invest the “trend”, because trend is your friend.
However, when trend is changed you need to get out. However, some newsletter writers or the investors themselves they made mistake, they see the price change and want to buy low, and thus they entered the position. Seeing the price dropping further they want to see the reverse. In this case there appears a bottom theory. This theory give people a false idea that the stock they bought will go up very soon. If it is a small correction, this theory works, but in a big correction like the current one with gold miners, the more bottom theory the worse.
If you read carefully, you can find a lot of things from the bottom theory authors.
Somebody mentioned “financial sense news”, Frank and Jim did a gold miner cheap program very early, thus I think their subscribers bought this down trend miners very early, thus you go there to listen, they give you a lot of bottom theory couple of weeks ago. Now the bottom of theirs is failed, thus now they use other theory to convince keep the gold shares.
Bottom theory gives a false hope to investors, it is harmful theory!

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Guest — Mon, 14 May 2012 22:17:07 -0000

Operative word here is COULD!

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Greg — Mon, 14 May 2012 17:35:12 -0000

In Jordan's defence, as a subscriber, his service is one of the best ( having subscribed to a few) and I'm going to continue with it. Personally as a non trader, but an investor, I find the problem with many services is that they put too much emphasis on technical analysis, which I think is quite dangerous and should be used as a guide with a large grain of salt, mainly because the macro-economics are so much more powerful. Also, many newsletters and gold bug websites are extremely biased and not balanced and at every leg down, we are just told to buy because it's cheap and on the way up told to buy because Gold is going to the moon (James Turk is like a broken record!). The more cerebral services tell when to take profits and analyse the macro picture as well. Money printing goes into anything that's attractive. That could be Gold, metal stocks, hard assets, commodities, the conventional stock market etc etc. and those things vary depending on timing and lots of other factors. Don't think the gold stocks will be a buy until we get QE3 and that is unlikely to happen for political reasons until after or very close to the US presidential elections. Best website for the macro and an unbiased view is financialsense.com by some margin IMO.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Paul Bertan — Mon, 14 May 2012 17:31:46 -0000

The bottom in silver will occur when the last of my retirement cash becomes available in September,

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Jordan Roy-Byrne — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:36:56 -0000

Excuse me, where do you get the gall to judge our service when you aren't even a subscriber? We are up 2% YTD while GDXJ is down 18%. Since the start of 2011, we are down 4% while GDXJ is down a whopping 47%. We have hedged ourselves with DUST and kept an ample cash position since last autumn.

It is hilarious...the feedback I get from subscribers is overwhelmingly positive while those who make comments here bitch and moan about our work when they aren't even a subscriber! Wise up and get all the facts before you judge.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

birdman — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:21:47 -0000

Wow, and when it rises, maybe you can say that it's going up.........

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Keep Shorting — Mon, 14 May 2012 13:26:59 -0000

All of these analysts should be ashamed of themselves for charging money for horrible advice. Not just Jordan but anyone in the newsletter business. The worst one being John Doody.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Jimbo — Mon, 14 May 2012 13:06:19 -0000

Most likely, silver will break support.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Derek — Mon, 14 May 2012 12:10:41 -0000

All we need is for the FORCED selling in form of redemptions to stop.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

goldragon — Mon, 14 May 2012 12:04:19 -0000

From today's gold and GDX behavior, I am afraid that gold might go to $1200, and GDX might go down to $30.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

goldbug — Mon, 14 May 2012 11:56:00 -0000

Buy puts and see what happens. Another support for gold is at 1530s and if that breaks which very well might due to extreme weakness in metal that I haven't seen to this extend in the last 8 years being into it can push this thing much lower. Deflation is back on the table and cash rules. Markets are moving lower and fear is back on so we can look for gold support but where will it be? 1530? 1480? 1430? or 1000??? If the Fed doesn't step in with QE3 soon we can have another crash with gold moving much much lower in the mid term. I haven't sold an ounce of physical and have bleeding miners where I have puts for a hedge.

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

RUSS SMITH — Mon, 14 May 2012 11:36:44 -0000

Hi!, Patrons Of The Daily Gold Et Al:

It has been brougt to my attention by such advisories as Casey Research that we are entering the "Summer Doldrums" when everybody goes on vacation etc. plus the wedding season for Indian gold purchases is somtime in the fall and then comes the Chinese New Year both which apply added demands upon gold seasonally. It would appear that perhaps during the doldrums that the Wild Card may involve large Central Bank purchases at any time? Only Mr. Market knows exactly for sure & so again exercising our patience and persistance awaiting Mr. Market seems prudent again in my opinion.

RUSS SMITH, CALIFORNIA
resmith@wcisp.cm

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

Drmikebarry — Mon, 14 May 2012 07:37:08 -0000

oversold can become more oversold!!
barmi

Re: Major Bottom in Precious Metals Could Occur This Week

goldragon — Mon, 14 May 2012 07:26:34 -0000

I have gotten "bottom is near" for almost months. Where is the bottom? This morming gold reach $1562. Maybe we are still far from it.

Re: Commodities are Nearing a Major Low

Tijl Willemsens — Thu, 10 May 2012 13:27:59 -0000

Very good analysis, I agree!

Re: Keeping the Decline in Gold Stocks in Perspective

Rockford1 — Tue, 08 May 2012 20:23:40 -0000

BTFD and stay physical. Everything else is an illusion.

Re: Keeping the Decline in Gold Stocks in Perspective

clive — Tue, 08 May 2012 05:50:03 -0000

Under Executive Order 12631 the government does as it pleases in markets. I have
the order right here. It is entitled "Working Group on Financial Markets" and it
came into force on March 18, 1988 signed,, by Ronald Reagan.

Wether you believe in manipulation orr not. America has the power under this order to do so, and with money printing its dead easy.

Re: Keeping the Decline in Gold Stocks in Perspective

Private — Tue, 08 May 2012 01:34:16 -0000

I agree to buy in -- hold firm and make money. Wanna make money? Buy some of the juniors with prospects of a mine. I agree that manipulation serves no profitability except -- in how you use manipulation (that is real) to your advantage.
Buy shares when prices fall -- accumulate during these times. Than you will prosper.

Re: Keeping the Decline in Gold Stocks in Perspective

Private — Tue, 08 May 2012 01:29:45 -0000

We would be lucky to have more Zionist Jewish people investing into gold and gold stocks. The manipulation is always there by governments -- U. S. government included.

Re: Keeping the Decline in Gold Stocks in Perspective

Jordan Roy-Byrne — Mon, 07 May 2012 20:52:03 -0000

Ben,

Manipulation has very little to do with the current environment in gold stocks. Sadly, too many folks continue to hang on that idea when it serves no one profitably.

Re: Keeping the Decline in Gold Stocks in Perspective

Ben Roberts13 — Mon, 07 May 2012 12:39:32 -0000

you forgot the manipulation,, no competent well informed analyst would forget to factor that in as well.